So what if Trump is in the Epstein Files?

Truth will not necessarily set us free from MAGA fascism

I am, by nature, a political Eeyore. Tell me a way to win and I will produce bullet points for failure. Successful strategies require honest assessments, so this is a useful political skill. Not a great trick for parties though, tends to kill conversation. But here I go.

Progressives tend to latch onto that one weird thing that will save us. We pin our hopes on some “inevitability”, like votes from people of color, to save us from Trump. Or we grasp at straws, like the Harris campaign, born into the nearly impossible task of electing a woman president—a problem that was never taken seriously enough. So, today, it is the Epstein File. How its contents or a continuing failure to release them will break the MAGA coalition and end Trump’s reign. This is wishful thinking, however, not considered opinion.

So, instead of hoping for change, we should take a look around.

• We have no idea what is in the file

I have no expertise in federal prosecutions nor in the evidence collected to prosecute Epstein and Maxwell. If you walk down to the DOJ Records Department and say “Get me the Epstein file,” I have no idea what could be there. No one pressing for its release has an idea either. There could be little more in there than what is already in the public domain, just more graphic. And what could actually be released? Notes from every FBI interview? There would have to be redactions, so you could likely fill binders with just the blacked out lines. Plus, with these delays, no one would trust the contents if released.

• We have no proof the files worry Trump

I know Trump appears to be in full Epstein File panic, but this is not necessarily over what is in the files. For the first time in his political career, Trump cannot reset the narrative. That alone could send a narcissist like him into a melt, simply because he has lost control. Moreover, without the files, more and more reporting is being done about Trump’s past, as reporters try to piece together what cannot be read. That development could be more unsettling for him than anything in Epstein’s file.

• Nothing about the administration would change if Trump is in the files

So, assume Trump presents illegally in the files. Would Trump be impeached? Two-thirds of the Senate is a high bar indeed and unlikely, barring baby-sacrifices. Can he be prosecuted while President? No. Could he take drastic steps to obstruct justice while in office? Yes, the Supreme Court gives him a broad immunity. Can he grant himself a pardon? Yes. Would any Epstein state crimes in Florida be prosecuted later? Likely no.

Trump is a simple person who follows Roy Cohn rules. The first is never admit anything. The second is fight scorched-earth against all accusers. No matter the file’s contents, Trump will be president. The presidency is his safest place, and the best position to rain hellfire down on opponents—so why give that up willingly? He does not care for any political party or MAGA legacy at this point. His kakistocratic and kleptocratic administration will continue while he uses power’s every lever to fight any allegation made against him.

• What would be gained if Trump is in the files

The Democrats should do well in the midterms and will likely take the House. However, Trump’s Big Deadly Bill is sufficient ammunition to win back marginal house seats. Without clarity on the above points, we have no idea today how the Epstein File would affect the midterms. The whole affair may suppress MAGA turnout, but elections are far off in the American attention span. So nothing is to be gained by speculating on how any file will help the cause.

Trump has no care for actual governance and could golf as Washington gridlocks fully with a divided Congress. Democrats could impeach, but that has not proven a winning strategy. The Epstein File affair may help move Democrats across the line in the House, but it will likely not do more than stop the current bleeding.

• What damage is being done to Epstein’s victims?

How hypocritical are progressives when using the Epstein tragedy against Trump? A point that Lawrence O’Donnell eloquently put forward yesterday is that no one is discussing the Epstein victims. Nothing on how their horrific childhood injuries are used in politics nor even asking if they agree to have any files released. In a rush to get Trump, are progressives compromising other essential values like care for victims of childhood rape? Not to say Trump should go unpursued, but we may be lacking respect for our own values in a zeal to defeat Trump.

Illusions pave the road to Fascism

Despots sell illusions to build fascism while most use them to deny it could happen. Everything we do to end Trump must be clear-eyed and focused. There is no one thing that will end MAGA and we must never dwell on a Russia, a Big Deadly Bill, or an Epstein File to win the day. It is only us, talking to neighbors, everyday, that will take us off the fascist path and return us to a proper one.